Professor Slots' “5-spin method”

what is it?

The “5-spin method” is a strategy developed by Professor Slots to find “winning slot machines” through finding casinos that offer “tastes”.

what is it supposed to do?

According to the creator of the “5-spin method”, slot machines in some 25% of casinos are programmed to give a new player a win—the “taste”—when they first sit down and start playing. The quick win encourages the gambler to keep playing and spend not only the “taste”, but also the rest of his or her bankroll. By stopping after collecting the “taste”, the player interrupts this cycle and ends up with huge profits as they only play at significantly higher odds during “taste” mode.

does it work?

The introduction to professor slots' “5-spin method” explains how it was developed:

After over a dozen visits within three months at a pari-mutual racetrack with slot machines outside of Cincinnati, Ohio, I found a clear pattern to winning I’d not seen before. I watched someone else use it, then used it myself.

Not to spoil the ending, but nothing learned in Ohio racetracks can be applied to slot machines because Ohio racetracks cannot have slot machines. Ohio racetracks have video lottery terminals (page archive). The horse racetracks that have VLTs make no mention of “slot machines.” VLTs are similar in appearance to slot machines, but the mode of operation is completely different. Slot machines have individual random number generators that determine where the reels stop in the play area. VLTs have no random number generator and all game results are determined by virtual lottery tickets created by a central server. Any reels or animations are purely for entertainment. The game terminals are lottery ticket vending machines.

This may seem like a small detail, but it is very important. The “professor” ignores that VLTs are not slot machines and encourages players to use this method on slot machines. Would you use a blackjack strategy that was developed by someone playing baccarat? Both games use cards and base wins on sum of values in a hand. Strategies must be interchangeable between those games, right?

Beyond that error, casinos have no reason to offer tastes. Allowing players to win early would create an exploitable pattern. Who would for any longer than was required to get the “taste?” Casinos would have a difficult time offering “tastes” if they wanted to do this. How would a slot machine even know whether or not a player is new and needs a “taste?” Player's card? Cameras? Scales built into the chair?

The video for the “5-spin method” on Youtube has many comments from people who report success through the method. How is this possible if slot machines do not offer “tastes”?

what is actually happening

The “success” of the “5-spin method” “works” can be explained by binomial distribution. Binomial distribution can be used to calculate the probability of a yes-or-no event happening a certain number of times over a specific number of trials, such as the probability of winning exactly one time during five spins of a slot machine.

n is the total number of events. r is the number of successful events. p is the probability of success for one event.

This looks very complicated, but it is not. The first part—n! ÷ ((n − r)! × r!)—is the formula for the number of combinations of quantity r from n items. p^r is the probability of success in r events. (1 − p)^(n − r) is the probability of failure in the remaining events. What is the probability of winning exactly 1 times in 5 games on a slot machine that has a 15% (0.15) hit rate?

r would be 1, n would be 5, and p would be 0.15. Putting that in the formula gives:

The probability of winning exactly one time out during the five spins of the “5-spin method” is about 40%. This can be calculate for numbers of wins from 0 to 5.

Adding the probabilities where a “taste” is found, which is everything except where r = 0, would give the probability of finding a “taste” during any five spins of a slot machine. For a game with a hit rate, or probability of winning, of 15%%, the probability of finding a “taste” in five spins is 56%.

This can be a lot of work. What happens if the “Professor” comes up with a 30 spin method? Luckily, we have a short cut. The probability of winning one game is p. The probability of losing one game would be 1 − p. The probability of losing any number, n, games in a row is (1 − p)^n. Thus, the probability of not losing, or at least one win, would be 1 − (1 − p)^n. In the specific case of the “5-spin method”, the equation would be:

The following table shows the probability of at least one win over five games for hit rates from 10% to 25%:

Even on a game with a low 10% hit rate, the probability of winning at least one time in 5 games is 40%. A player would be expected to find that about four of every ten games with a hit rate of 10% offer “tastes”. This is higher than the Professor's statement that 25% of casinos offer tastes. As the hit rate increases, the probability of finding a “taste” increases. A game that has a 20% hit rate would be expected to offer a taste 67% of the time.

What hit rate is required for a machine to offer a “taste” half of the time?

Add (1 − p)^5 to each side and subtract 0.5 from each side.

Take the fifth root of each side to eliminate the exponents.

Add p and subtract 0.870550563 from each side to get the value of p

Any machine with a hit rate greater than 12.945% is expected to give a “taste” more than half the time when played for five spins. Those who report having found “tastes” being offered by a casino are simply finding machines with hit rates in the normal range operating as expected. This is not happening because game makers or casinos are setting games to offer “tastes”. It occurs because of math. The more games played in the “method”, the higher the probability of finding a “taste” will be. This is just what is expected based on a game's hit rate.

These values are the expected “taste” rate based on hit rate. If casinos are offering “tastes,” then the frequency of finding a “taste” should be even higher.

conclusion

Professor Slots undersells his “5-spin Method” here. It will work about half the time even on games with very low hit rates not set up to offer “tastes”, but not because of anything that the “professor” noticed while watching people play VLT games in Ohio. This is what makes systems like the “5-spin Method” so dangerous. Players will find “tastes” and believe that they have stumbled across a way of beating slot machines. In reality, the games are behaving exactly as we would expect them to behave.

The method is not completely terrible though: a small benefit of the “5-spin Method” is reducing the number of wagers that a player makes. Making fewer wagers means that the player would be less exposed to the house edge. The casino cannot take 10% of a bet a gambler never makes. However, these benefits are still coming as the result of believing potentially dangerous myths casinos can be beaten by observing patterns. Limiting spins is good, but do it because you want to control your spending and not because you believe that you are getting one over on the casino.

You may be asking yourself if it is worth the time necessary to debunk “5-spin Method” when it will have neither positive nor negative influence on game results. That is a fair question. The danger of fake systems, like the “5-spin Method”, is not that they will make players lose, but that unknowing gamblers may attribute success to the method instead of random chance. This charlatans to scam people using false evidence that they claim supports their very expensive gambling systems. The “5-spin Method” is not a way to find “winning games”. It will definitely not “turn the tables” on the casino. Any success is due to luck.

The “5-spin method” will not help a player win more or reduce the house edge on slot machines or VLT games.

“n-spin method” simulation